Your redundancy assumes the spare arrives tomorrow
A drive dies on a Tuesday and nothing happens: that is what you paid the replica for. But what you bought is not immunity, it is a window of time in which to replace the part before the next failure — and that window was calculated assuming the spare arrives tomorrow. Western Digital told its earnings call it was "pretty much sold out for calendar year 2026" and Seagate said its nearline capacity was "fully allocated" for the same period, with cloud agreements now reaching into 2027 and 2028. We run the arithmetic on Backblaze's published failure rates: with the spare in 48 hours, the probability of a second failure before the repair is 0.18%; with the spare in 20 weeks, it is 11.5%. Same design, same drives, 66 times the risk from a variable that appears in no diagram. Where it hurts most (the node, not the disk), the retention cut nobody signs off, and the six questions we ask now before approving a design.